Prof John Osonwa: Assessing Nigeria at 65

Folks I always find myself responding to people who try to minimise or excuse Nigeria’s failings by comparing it to some of the developed countries at their infancy or by painting a rosy picture.

The trouble with Nigeria is not just that we are on the wrong trajectory, but the fact that we are arrogantly so.

If we persist with our current political, psychological, cultural, religious, sociological and governance mindset, Nigeria will never become like the other developed countries — even in 10,000 years.

Let’s look at some cold facts. Despite our status as one of the biggest producers of Oil, we have embezzled over $50 billion dollars in 25 years under the guise of Turn Around Maintenance of our Refineries. Not a single one is working today. And the man who built one is being frustrated daily with all kinds of shenanigans. Nigeria is the only Oil producing country in the World with no Refinery that is forced to import fuel.

Despite having one of the greatest Gas reserves in the world, 80% of Nigerians still cook with wood, dung, and other polluting fuels. To make matters worse, even though we made Gas flaring illegal in 1984 (yes, 40 years ago), we are still flaring the equivalent of $5 billion dollars of gas every year, enough to provide Electricity for the whole Nigeria and 20 other African countries. Meanwhile, we lack fertiliser for our Agriculture. The major component of fertiliser (urea) is derived from Gas.

Despite “spending” more than $30 billion dollars since 1999, our Power Delivery Capacity to Nigerian Businesses and Households has remained at less than 5,000 Megawatts for 20 years. If you load anything more than that, the entire National Grid collapses. By the way, Nigeria ranks No.1 in the World in the frequency of grid collapses per year.

Despite having more than $100 trillion in Oil, Gas and Mineral reserves, Nigeria continues to borrow heavily with no visible impact on the ground.

In summary, we rank 103 out of 107 on the Global Food Security Index. We rank 113 out of 124 on the World Hunger Index. We have the worst Doctor-to-Patient ratio in the World, we are the Hunger Capital of the World, we have the highest number of people kidnapped or killed by terrorists in the World, we have the greatest number of children out of school, and one of the highest rates of infant mortality in the World. Four of our cities were ranked as the most polluted in the World in terms of Air Quality. We have no Ambulance Service. No Fire Service. No Police Emergency Service. No Airline. No Rail Line for goods. No Rail Service that is cheap, safe and secure for everyone. No safe Roads. No safe drinking water for 80% of the population. No toilet facilities for 90% of our citizens. No safe Water Transport system for coastal and riverine communities. No Standardized Waste Management System for most Communities and Cities. No Security to move around the country.

We have a stinkingly corrupt Judiciary with a Justice System that emboldens crooks and criminals. The average case takes more than 10 years to be fully resolved in Nigeria and most hardly get “justice” in the end. We have the worst system for Retirees and Pensioners. Our Professors are the lowest paid in the World. And 95% of our youths (over 150 million) have no jobs and no hope in the system.

Yet, our Politicians are the highest paid in the world and the least accountable. The last two Presidents have also doubled as Petroleum Ministers yet the NNPC and its subsidiaries have stolen over $50 billion and is currently trying to explain how another $200 billion got missing.

95% of the cases that we hear about from the EFCC never result in any punishment or recovery of stolen loot. To add insult to injury, the two last Chairmen of the EFCC, and the last Attorney General stole more than the ones they were charged with prosecuting — and walked off into the sunset untouched. The former Accountant General stole N100 billion and the former CBN Governor stole N1 trillion.

So please spare me the warped analogies. Nigeria is on the wrong trajectory. Until we completely deconstruct Nigeria, we will never become a civilized and developed Nation.

Nobody is discouraging anyone from building a better Nigeria. I am at the forefront of promoting investment in Nigeria. But we must hold ourselves and our Leaders accountable and call a spade a spade. We are way off target in virtually everything we do in Nigeria. The facts and figures I have highlighted above show this starkly, without bias or recourse to any tribe or religion. Those are Nigerian facts. We will never become like China, India or South Korea if we continue on this trajectory.

Methinks 65 years is enough time for us to know that we are not headed in the right direction. I didn’t celebrate Nigeria at 65. I mourned Nigeria.